BOYS BASKETBALL PLAYOFF PREVIEW
By Ben Kaufmann
County Courier
Division I:
(No. 7) BFA-St. Albans (13-7) vs. (No. 10) Burr & Burton (8-12) – Tuesday 7:00
I caught more than a little grief for my ranting that BFA’s schedule makes it nearly impossible for them to make a deep playoff run earlier this season. Now is their chance to prove me wrong. The Bobwhites ended the season with nine straight wins, though just one of those came against a Division I opponent (a seven-point win at Colchester). There’s plenty to be said for the benefit of building such confidence over the second half of the season – Tuesday night, we’ll find out how that translates to the postseason. BFA’s draw is pretty favorable as Division I goes – the defending runner-up Bulldogs lost 12 of 13 games midseason before finishing the year with three straight wins. The only common opponent between the two this year was South Burlington: BFA lost by 19 and BBA lost by 17. We’re going to put the two schools of thought from my early-season diatribe about strength of schedule head-to-head on Tuesday: BBA played 10 games against Division I opposition, ended with a losing record and a road playoff game. BFA played four games against D-I teams and ended with a winning record and a home game. My money says BFA’s confidence and enthusiastic home crowd helps it to a narrow win over the Bulldogs. The winner of this one gets a trip to (No.2) CVU and will need a small miracle to advance to a semifinal at Patrick Gym.
Division II:
(No. 7) Missisquoi (12-8) vs. (No. 10) Lyndon (11-9) – Tuesday 7:00
MVU coach Matt Walker did a little digging into the history of Missisquoi basketball and discovered that this will be just the ninth time the Thunderbird boys have hosted a first-round game in 50 years. So yes, this season is already a massive success for the Thunderbirds, but Walker’s group has no intention of resting on its regular-season laurels. Tuesday’s game is a very winnable one for MVU but will by no means be a cakewalk. Lyndon won seven of its last nine games and has similar results to Missisquoi against common opponents (against Harwood and Lake Region, MVU was 2-0 and LI was 4-0; both were 0-2 against North Country). Matthew Curtis has been on fire for the T-Birds as of late and can team with Gabe Unwin and Patrick Walker to frustrate the Vikings. The x-factor for MVU this postseason will be Ethan Creller, who is very capable of exploding for 28 points on seven threes. Coach Walker told me he expected that kind of game from Creller any day now and I jokingly responded that he’s saving the big night for Barre. In truth, a career night from Creller may be needed sooner; if MVU can get past Lyndon, a trip to (No. 2) U-32 (18-2) looms in the quarterfinals.
(No. 8) Milton (12-8) vs. (No. 9) Mt. St. Joseph (10-10) – Tuesday 7:00
The biggest wild-card of our local teams plays the biggest question mark of a matchup. Milton and MSJ have no common opponents to look at for clues. The Yellow jackets have notable wins over BFA-St. Albans, Mt. Abe and MVU and stunning loss to Enosburg and a pair of blowout defeats to Middlebury. When Milton is on, they are scary-good. When off, Milton can be wayyy off. Kyle Brown is as lethal a scorer as anyone in the area and Brandon Dallas Jr. is very capable of a 30-point night. Colin Mathis is a sophomore and will be on the shortlist the next two years for best all-around player. All of Milton’s key figures will be back next year, but a trip to Barre might be in the cards this season if all goes well. We’re looking at an 8/9 matchup between schools who haven’t seen each other and have no common opponents, so it’s a toss-up. Both have one win against a Division I school (BFA-St. Albans for Milton and Burr & Burton for MSJ) and similar results elsewhere. Give me the home team in this one, Milton at its best is way better than a No. 8. I like them to take down MSJ and then to upset (No. 1) Fair Haven in the quarterfinals.
Division III:
(No. 4) Enosburg (10-10) vs. (No. 13) Northfield (6-14) – Wednesday 7:00
Enosburg benefits from the opposite of what I wrote about for BFA-St. Albans; they spend most of the season punching above their weight class. 10-10 may not look like much on paper, but the Hornets are a very deserving No. 4. 14 of Enosburg’s 20 games were against opponents in a higher division. They notched a huge late-season win over Milton, swept Middlebury, split with Mt. Abe and improved greatly the second time around in losses to BFA-St. Albans and North Country. Now, it’s time for the unknowns of the state tournament. Enosburg hasn’t seen Northfield or probable quarterfinal opponent (No. 5) Williamstown. Wednesday’s outlook is good for the Hornets; Northfield was swept by the same Richford team Enosburg beat twice. Some of these Hornets were on the soccer field this fall when the (No. 2) Hornets took a stunning loss to (No. 7) Mill River, so I expect they won’t be taking any tournament game lightly. Enosburg’s fan support might be tops in the area, look for that to become a bigger factor against Williamstown. This Enosburg team is gritty; Ethan Williams is a monster down low and Owen McKinstry is one of many Hornets who have improved over the course of this season. Look for a big night from Hornet freshman Devyn Gleason, who will not be the first Gleason to put on a postseason shooting show in Enosburg green.
(No. 11) BFA-Fairfax (9-11) @ (No. 6) Peoples Academy (11-9) – Wednesday 7:00 at Lamoille HS
It’s tough to ask more a much better draw as an 11-seed than the one Fairfax got. The Bullets played Peoples Academy twice and notched wins of 15 and 20 points. Like Milton, when Dave Demar’s Bullets are on, they’re much better than the 9-11 record indicates. Playoffs are all about getting hot at the right time and BFA-Fairfax has the kind of group you don’t feel good betting against. Even though the Bullets ended the regular season with three straight losses, one of those came to (No. 1) Hazen and the last was a two-point nailbiter in Danville – a significant improvement on a 35-point loss to the Indians earlier in the season. This Bullet team won’t be outworked by anyone and has a very good chance to return home Wednesday night with a quarterfinal berth in hand. That would likely mean a long Saturday trip to Bellows Falls, where a win against the (No. 3) Terriers certainly isn’t out of the question.
Division IV:
(No. 13) Richford (5-15) @ (No. 4) Danville (15-5) – Tuesday 7:00
The toughest break for any of our local teams. Danville’s Ian Steele is a machine – he went off for 37/10/7 at BFA-Fairfax in February. There aren’t many teams in any division who can slow the Danville star, and he’s not their only weapon. If anyone knows how dangerous Danville is, it’s the Falcons; the Indians collected wins of 29 and 39 points over Richford this year. First-year Falcon coach Cayden Theberge has his team believing they can compete with anyone, which is a big part of the battle come playoff time. The memory of (No. 15) Richford beating (No. 2) Windsor in the first round of the 2017 baseball playoffs is still fresh enough that this year’s basketball Falcons know a 13-seed is no death sentence. That said, Windsor baseball didn’t have Ian Steele. If Theberge’s team can come up with a way to snap Danville’s eight-game winning streak and bust the bracket, there’s no other team it should fear the rest of the way.
